• New Evidence on the Health and Employment effects of Non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 Interventions on Workers in the United States, Empirical Economics (2024)

with Prabal De and Laxman Timilsina

 We provide new evidence on the economic and health impacts of government-mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Apart from labor force participation, unemployment, and hours worked, we provide novel results on work absence due to illness. We also examine the heterogeneity of these results by demographic and employment groups. We use recent innovations in the difference-in-differences methodology to capture the dynamic effects of these orders that were staggered in nature. Our findings show that states’ social distancing measures increased unemployment and lowered labor market participation and hours worked. The adverse labor market effects were more pronounced for single parents and those working non-teleworkable jobs. We find some evidence that workers’ health improved as absence from work due to illness significantly decreased, suggesting that NPIs protected many vulnerable workers. 

• The impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market, Labour Economics (2022)

with Refik Erzan and Murat Kirdar

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey as of the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. The migrant influx has strong adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, particularly on temporary wage workers, less-educated and young workers, women who are part-time employed and self-employed, and workers in agriculture and construction. At the same time, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector; in fact, both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase particularly in manufacturing. Increases in prices in the product market and capital flow to the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector. The adverse effects on the most vulnerable groups in the labor market, along with the rise in consumer prices, imply that poverty might increase among these native groups.

• Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers (2024)

with Sidhya Balakrishnan, Eric Bettinger, Michael Kofoed, Dubravka Ritter, Doug Webber, Jon Hartley 

We conduct a survey-based experiment with 2,776 students at a non-profit university to analyze income insurance demand in education financing. We offered students a hypothetical choice: either a federal loan with income-driven repayment or an income-share agreement (ISA), with randomized framing of downside protections. Emphasizing income insurance increased ISA uptake by 43%. We observe that students are responsive to changes in contract terms and possible student loan cancellation, which is evidence of preference adjustment or adverse selection. Our results indicate that framing specific terms can increase demand for higher education insurance to potentially address risk for students with varying outcomes. 

• Essays in Applied Microeconomics (PhD Dissertation)

  • Chapter 1: The Effects of Health Care Reform on Health Outcomes: Evidence from Turkey

I evaluate the impact of the extensive health care reforms enacted between 2003–2013 under the Health Transformation Program (HTP) in Turkey on maternal and infant health outcomes for the poor. Before 2004, all public health insurance beneficiaries were covered for outpatient services, including prenatal and postnatal doctor visits, gestational diabetes screenings, lab studies, and medications, while Green Card holders lacked this coverage. After the introduction of HTP, all households received coverage for these services. Using a difference-in-differences estimation methodology, I find that the policy shift led to (1) lower mortality rates by 35 deaths (or by 42%) per thousand survivors under age 5 born to mothers with Green Card, (2) a suggestive decline in the prevalence of low birth weight by 8 percentage points and (3) a higher preference for more children for women with Green Card. I find no effects of the policy shift on children’s immunization, however, I identify young mothers and mothers residing in eastern regions of the country as the sub-groups whose children had significantly lower vaccination rates.

• • Chapter 2: The Effect of Overdose Prevention Centers on Overdose Mortality: Evidence from New York City

The surge in overdose deaths in the U.S. presents a pressing public health crisis. Despite a recent slowdown, overdose deaths remain significantly high, surpassing other leading causes of mortality. I employ a synthetic difference-in differences strategy to assess the impact of two Overdose Prevention Centers (OPCs) in New York City on overdose mortality. I find a 14 percent increase in overdose mortality; although the point estimates are stable across specifications, they are not statistically significant. Event study estimates further reveal an increase in drug overdose mortality post-OPC opening, with a seemingly escalating impact over time. I also find that OPCs significantly increased entry into substance use disorder treatment by 19 percent, primarily driven by a higher rate of seeking rehabilitation among current drug users. These findings contribute to harm reduction policy discussions, informing policymakers grappling with effective strategies against drug abuse and overdose.